Shaoxing, Zhejiang – At the Asian Development Bank’s Circular Economy and Sustainable Solid Waste Management Training Forum, Professor Tan Ching Seong, founder of Zhejiang Aifenghuan Information Technology Co. Ltd., unveiled a groundbreaking economic model to tackle the twin crises of debt and waste. His “Circular Gross Domestic Product (GDP)” framework challenges traditional linear growth metrics, proposing a system where sustainability drives value creation.
The Flaws of Linear GDP
Prof. Tan shared the shortcoming of conventional GDP for ignoring the material flows and environmental externalities. “Current GDP accounting treats waste and emissions as invisible, leading to a dangerous cycle of ballooning debt alongside unchecked resource depletion. This M2 Trap stifles long-term economic resilience,” said Prof. Tan.
The Circular GDP Solution
The proposed new circular economy model integrates five interconnected loops:
- Materials: Shift from “take-make-waste” to closed-loop manufacturing.
- Carbon: Monetise ecosystems (e.g., forests, wetlands) via REDD+-style mechanisms.
- Services: Value repair, sharing, and digital platforms as GDP contributors.
- Community: Empower the local cooperatives and time banking to unlock idle assets.
- Finance: Replace debt heavy systems with green bonds and carbon-linked investments.
“Like a mirror, this framework reflects the true cost and value of resources in a ledger,” Dr. Tan explained.
China’s Policy Leadership
Prof. Tan highlighted two China’s progressive policies that other countries could learn and adapt for their own applications:
- 2009 Circular Economy Promotion Law: Pioneered industrial symbiosis in parks.
- 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025): Embedded circular principles nationwide, with “Zero-Waste Cities” like Shaoxing turning food waste and textile scraps into revenue streams.
Global Case Studies
- Singapore: Its 2024 Resource Sustainability Act mandates lifecycle waste reporting, projected to boost GDP by 1.2% through tiered fees and composting incentives.
- Rural China: The REPP+ programme ties forest conservation and sanitation to circular GDP, creating new jobs like forest stewards and organic agronomists.
- Industrial Innovation: Used cooking oil (UCO) recycling that yields biofuel and plasticisers, generating ¥730 million (2024) while cutting 420kT of CO₂.
A Macroeconomic Shift
Dr. Tan’s proposed “balance-sheet overhaul” that advocates a fundamental restructuring of economic systems. First, it demands an expansion of national accounting frameworks to incorporate the natural capital, more specifically carbon sinks and biodiversity as measurable assets alongside traditional financial indicators.
Second, the model introduces a paradigm shift in industrial classification by formally recognising a “Fourth Sector.” This emerging economic category encompasses activities such as ecological restoration, digital service platforms, and community time banking system, where value is created through resource preservation rather than extraction.
Finally, a framework that reimagines monetary policy mechanisms where it integrates central banking operations with carbon markets through innovative SDG-aligned financial instruments, creating direct linkages between monetary stability and environmental sustainability performance.
This tripartite approach represents nothing less than a recalibration of modern capitalism where environmental and social value are systematically embedded within the core economic architectures.
Key Takeaways
“Circular economics isn’t just Green jargon—it’s the next growth paradigm,” Dr. Tan concluded. “When waste becomes an asset, sustainability fuels prosperity.” Shaoxing’s success proves the model’s viability, offering a blueprint for cities worldwide.